SpaceX IPO Roadshow: Project Apex (June 2026)

OFFERING

OVERVIEW

The mission: build the systems to make life multiplanetary, understand the universe, and extend the light of consciousness to the stars. Lowering the cost of space access funds adjacent missions: bridging the digital divide by aiming to connect 3B+ unconnected people, and meeting AI's exponentially rising resource demands. SpaceX positions itself as an "N of 1": the only company building integrated hardware and software across three businesses, Space (since 2002), Connectivity (since 2020), and AI (since 2023). The repeatable model: leverage launch to enable scale, identify trillion-dollar markets, design with first-principles engineering, apply "The Algorithm" (make requirements less dumb, delete, optimize, accelerate, automate), vertically integrate to the end customer, drive cost down and throughput up, then reinvest the cash flow.

TAM

Near-term $5.7T splits into Space-enabled solutions $370B; Starlink Broadband $870B and Starlink Mobile $740B (Connectivity $1.6T); and AI Infrastructure $2.4T, Consumer Subscriptions $760B, and Digital Advertising $600B (AI $3.8T). The AI-expanded view layers in Enterprise Applications of $22.7T, lifting AI to $26.5T and the total to $28.5T.

MOMENTUM

KEY EVENTS THIS YEAR

• Feb-26

  Acquired xAI

  ✓Done
• Feb-26

  Starlink surpassed 10M active customers

  ✓Done
• Mar-26

  Terafab announced

  ✓Done

  Strategic collaboration with Tesla to build the world's largest chip manufacturing facility. Intel joined in April 2026.

• Apr-26

  X Ads Manager launch

  ✓Done

  Phased roll-out of the advertising platform began.

• Apr-26

  Grok 4.3 released

  ✓Done

  Fastest, most intelligent Grok model to date.

• Apr-26

  Cursor partnership

  ✓Done

  Partnered with Cursor to advance Grok.

• May-26

  Anthropic compute agreement

  ✓Done

  Entered into cloud services agreements to provide access to compute.

• May-26

  EchoStar spectrum licenses

  ✓Done

  Received FCC approval of the EchoStar license transfer.

• May-26

  Starship V3 flew

  ✓Done

  Completed Starship's 12th test flight, the first of Starship V3.

• May-26

  American Airlines agreement

  ✓Done

ROADMAP

SEGMENT 1

SpaceX flew 165 Falcon-family launches in 2025 and holds 80%+ of global mass to orbit since 2023 (share rose from 45% in 2021 to 65% in 2022 to 80%+ across 2023 to 2025, per BryceTech). Reusability has driven launch cost per kg to LEO from a $18,500 historical average (1970 to 2000) down to about $2,700 on Falcon 9 (85% reduction) and $1,400 on Falcon Heavy (92%), with Starship targeting a 99%+ reduction. The remaining Starship technical milestone is catch and re-flight of the ship; the goal is airline-like operations where methane and liquid oxygen propellant is the only marginal cost per launch.

SEGMENT 2

Starlink runs 9,600+ satellites (about 75% of all active maneuverable satellites; 3,000+ deployed in 2025 vs roughly 3,200 for everyone else combined). Subscribers grew 2.3M (2023), 4.4M (2024), 8.9M (2025), to 10.3M in Q1 2026, with YoY growth of 97%, 100%, then 105%. Coverage spans 164 countries and 3.3B+ people at 99.9% average uptime, 225 Mbps median download (vs ~120 Mbps for average terrestrial ISPs) and ~25ms latency. Enterprise and government use spans fixed site, land mobility, maritime, aviation, and Starshield, with customers including KDDI, John Deere, Brightline, Royal Caribbean, Maersk, Emirates, United, and government bodies like FEMA. Starlink Mobile is the largest satellite-to-mobile constellation: ~30 mobile network operators, ~1.9B people covered, ~650 V1 mobile satellites, and 65MHz of spectrum, delivering 5G to unmodified phones and IoT. V2 mobile deployment begins in 2027; the EchoStar spectrum acquisition (65MHz plus global MSS licenses) is expected to close November 2027.

SEGMENT 3

SpaceX frames itself as the only company that can vertically integrate across AI compute infrastructure, a frontier model (Grok), and real-time data (X). Colossus I and II form what the deck calls the world's largest coherent supercomputer: first gigawatt-scale training cluster, first gigawatt-scale Megapack battery installation, first to deploy GB200s and GB300s at significant scale, at ~1GW nameplate compute draw. The orbital AI compute thesis: US terrestrial supply is constrained (2025 supply 49 GW vs 62 GW demand), so space-based compute is pitched as readily available (solar-powered, no current regulatory hurdles), cheaper to operate (radiative cooling, Starlink data routing) and to deploy (falling cost per kg to orbit), and faster to refresh with new chip generations. AI compute satellites are targeted to begin deploying on Starship in 2028. Selling compute: a cloud compute services agreement with Anthropic across Colossus and Colossus II, at a $1.25B monthly fee through May 2029 (subject to conditions). Selling intelligence to enterprise: Grok Enterprise and Grok API, plus the Cursor partnership with an option to acquire Cursor at an implied equity value of $60B. Selling intelligence to consumers: ~117M MAU using Grok's AI features, with 2B+ videos and ~10B images produced monthly by Imagine. X itself has ~550M MAU and ~350M daily posts, with a strategy to become an "Everything App" spanning real-time info, communications, media, payments, and banking, alongside X Premium conversion and the new X Ads Manager.

NUMBERS

Connectivity is the profit engine: $11.4B revenue in 2025 (up 50%) and $7.2B segment Adjusted EBITDA. Space revenue is smaller and reflects external customer launches only (no inter-segment revenue for deploying SpaceX's own satellites), with segment Adjusted EBITDA dipping to $0.7B in 2025 as Starship R&D accelerated ($3.0B). The AI segment is still investing through losses ($1.2B negative segment Adjusted EBITDA in 2025). Group capex climbed to $20.7B in 2025 across all three segments, and SpaceX raised about $9B for Space and Connectivity. Adjusted EBITDA and Segment Adjusted EBITDA are non-GAAP; targets are goals, not projections.

VALUATION

At ~$1.77T on $18.7B of 2025 revenue, SpaceX is asking for roughly 95x trailing sales and about 270x Adjusted EBITDA, with no GAAP profit. That is far above any public comparable on a trailing basis. Even the richly-valued listed space pure-plays trade near 30x to 42x forward (2027E) sales: Rocket Lab around 30x and AST SpaceMobile around 42x, at market caps in the tens of billions. The closest large-cap analogs on multiple are the private AI labs, OpenAI (~$852B on ~$25B run-rate, ~34x) and Anthropic (~$965B on ~$47B run-rate, ~21x), but those are compounding run-rate revenue several times a year, which SpaceX's AI segment is not. A sum-of-the-parts lens is the honest way to look at it. Connectivity (Starlink) did $11.4B revenue in 2025 (up 50%) at $7.2B segment Adjusted EBITDA: a genuinely profitable, fast-growing core that, even at a generous infrastructure multiple, might support a few hundred billion of value. Space and launch ($4.1B external revenue, dominant share, Starship optionality) could justify another couple hundred billion at premium launch multiples. That leaves the majority of the ~$1.77T resting on AI and frontier optionality (orbital compute, lunar, Mars), where the AI segment today is sub-$4B in revenue and loss-making. In short, roughly half to two-thirds of the headline number is paying for the narrative, not the current P&L. That gap is exactly what the bull and bear cases argue over. None of this is investment advice.

THE DEBATE

PEOPLE

LONG-TERM

WHERE GROWTH GOES NEXT

• →Lunar economy: human Moon return with NASA Artemis by late 2020s, sustainable lunar base, and lunar factories to manufacture AI compute satellites powered by solar and a lunar mass driver
• →Mars: passenger and cargo transport, plus energy production and manufacturing on Mars
• →Point-to-point terrestrial travel via Starship
• →In-orbit manufacturing and asteroid mining
• →Design and manufacture own chips (Terafab) and launch digital human augmentation